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출처: http://business.financialpost.com/commodities/energy/all-this-massive-lng-project-needs-is-the-thumbs-up-from-its-owners-to-break-canadas-long-energy-losing-streak
Four and a half years after moving to Vancouver to ready the massive LNG Canada project for a final investment decision,
상당한 규모의 액화 천연 가스 프로젝트가 4년 반의 기다림 끝에 마지막 투자 결정을 기다리고 있다.
or FID, Andy Calitz likens the state of the mega-energy venture to that of a peak-performance Olympic athlete in the final seconds of a gold-medal race.
앤디 칼리츠는 이를 올림픽 결승 선수들간에 금메달을 놓고 마지막 수초를 다루는 일에 비유했다.
It’s beating competitors at that point that makes the difference between winning and losing, said the Royal Dutch Shell PLC executive, one of the world’s top guns in LNG development.
세계 액화 천연 가스 계발 1인자이며 쉘의 임원이 로얄 더치는 "마지막 승패를 좌우하는 시점이다"라고 했다.
It’s a good thing, then, that after a tortuous seven-year struggle to find a way to deliver Canadian LNG at the lowest possible price to Asia, the South African engineer is feeling optimistic about building an LNG export terminal in Kitimat, B.C.
아시아와 남아프리카에 액화 천연 가스의 가격경쟁의 우위를 점하기 위해 지난 7년 동안 값싸게 공급할 수 있는 방법을 찾았고, 현재 엔지니어들도 브리티시 콜럼비아 키티맷에 판매 시설을 짓는 것에 대해 긍정적이다.
“Apart from this relentless, Olympic-style competition to the last moment of getting costs down, down, down, there is not a single other major stumbling block to getting this project to FID,” Calitz, chief executive of LNG Canada, said in an interview at Shell’s Calgary headquarters, where he spends half his work week.
"우린 가격을 낮추기 위해 엄청난 노력을 했고 이제 우린 최종 결정을 받기까지 어떠한 장애물도 없을 거라 생각합니다"
“I have spent the last four and a half years thinking of nothing else. Is there something that I am not seeing? No. It’s the competitiveness at the time of the FID that will either do this, or this,” he says, turning his thumb up, and then down.
"전 지난 4년 반이란 시간동안 이것에 대해서만 생각해왔습니다. 제가 놓친 것은 없다고 생각합니다. 이젠 최종결정의 승인이냐 아니냐의 문제입니다"
LNG Canada will cross that go/no-go moment some time after June 30, when its team will finish preparatory work and the boards of the four global energy giants backing the joint-venture project — Shell (50 per cent), PetroChina Co. Ltd. (20 per cent), Korea Gas Corp. (15 per cent) and Mitsubishi Corp. (15 per cent) — will convene separately to decide the project’s fate.
액화 천연 가스 캐나다(회사)는 6월 30일 까지 프로젝트에 필요한 준비 이 프로젝트를 진행할지 안 할지에 대한 결정을 6월 말쯤 할 것이다. 4개의 회사로 이루어진 이사회에서 (쉘 50%, 페트로차이나 20% 한국가스공사15% 미츠비시15%) 모임을 가진후 이 프로젝트의 대한 최종 승인을 결정할 것이다.
Canada stuck on sidelines as U.S. oil boom creates jobs, curbs emissions 캐나다는 현재 미국의 내수 기름 관련 일자리 창출과 배출 억제로 인해 난관에 봉착했다.
A tragedy for Canada’: Petronas cancels $36B LNG project as B.C. jacks up demands Australia’s Woodside drops Grassy Point LNG plan in Canada to focus on Kitimat instead
더 큰 문제로는 페트로나는 최근 호주의 목재 산업에 대한 시장 부진으로 인해 36조 가량의 액화 천연 가스 프로젝트를 취소시켰다.
It’s a highly anticipated moment, but it’s not the first time the project has been here. In 2016, the partners decided to delay their FID on the $40-billion project — Canada’s largest ever — after energy prices collapsed and demand in Asia weakened.
파트너사는 프로젝트에 관한 최종결정을 2016년 연기했습니다. 가장 큰 이 유는 시장 유가 폭락과 아시아에서의 수요 하락이었습니다.
The investment involves building an entire LNG value chain: developing natural gas now stranded in Montney and Duvernay formations; building the Coastal GasLink pipeline through the Rocky and Coast mountain ranges; building a liquefaction plant and port in Kitimat; and then delivering gas to customers in China, Japan, Korea and beyond via two channels to the Pacific Ocean
현재 투자하기로 게획된 것들은: 몬트니와 더버니에서의 천연 가스를 통합하여 로키산맥과 레인지 산맥 부근에 가스를 운반하는 파이프 라인 건설, 액화시키는 공장과 항구를 키티맷에 건설하는 것이다. 최종 판매처는 중국, 한국, 일본이다.
The project will be built in two stages, with construction of the first expected to start later this year and completed in 2024. 프로젝트는 먼저 두단계로 나뉘어지고 첫번째 단계는 올해 말쯤 시작하여 2024년에 완공될 예정이다.
The project is so large that at full capacity it would soak up a third of the gas production in Western Canada, or about 4 billion cubic feet a day, which could lift prices long depressed by excess supplies. 프로젝트 규모가 워낙 거대에해서 4억 삼제콥곱 피트의 기름, 즉 캐나다 서부 생산량의 35%에 해당하는 기름을 공급할 예정이다.
It would be a major building block for economic reconciliation with First Nations, signal that Canada can competitively produce hydrocarbons under its new aggressive greenhouse gas reduction targets, and make Canada the 20th LNG producing country. 캐나다 원주민들의 경제 회복의 시발점이 될것이고 캐나다 또한 현재 진행되는 각종 규제들 아래에서 탄화수소와를 공급하면서 20세기 액화천연가스 생상국으로 도약할 것이다.
Calitz lists several reasons why’s he optimistic aside from the fact that development plans are well advanced, and environmental approvals are already in place. 캘리츠는 프로젝트 계획이 굉장히 선진적이며 환경에 대한 동의도 이미 마쳐놓았다고 한다.
A big one is that the global supply/demand market has improved, since no new LNG projects were launched in either 2016 or 2017. Indeed, according to a recent Shell LNG outlook, the global market will be short of LNG supplies starting in 2020 because demand growth has defied expectations. 가장 큰 요인은 2016, 2017년에 비하며 현재 글로벌 공급솨 수요가 굉장히 늘었다는 것이다. 쉘의 시장조사에 의하면 클로벌 시장은 2020년까지 공급의 부족현상을 겪을 것이라고 에상하고 있다.
Other reasons include recovering energy prices that have normalized, considerable buyer interest in Asia and that the fabrication yards in Asia that would build half of the plant’s big pieces are hungry for work after finishing work on Russia’s Yamal LNG project. 가격 회복의 제외한 또 다른 이유로는 현재 아시아쪽에 생산설비를 둔 업체들이 러시아에서의 액화 천연 가스 프로젝트를 마친 후 또 다른 프로젝틀 찾고 있는 것이라고 했다.
LNG Canada would also benefit from a first-mover advantage since it would have access to a large pool of labour in B.C. and the rest of Canada. If it moves forward, the project would hire between 15,000 and 20,000 craftsmen over a five-year construction period for upstream development, as well as the pipeline, plant and port.
Finally, both the federal and, most recently, B.C. NDP government are on board.
B.C. Premier John Horgan’s government, which needs the support of the anti-fossil-fuel Green Party to stay in power, could have easily played spoiler.
Horgan was critical of the sector during last year’s election campaign, but has since moderated his views. He recently said B.C. has “a real opportunity of perhaps landing one or two LNG facilities.”
Indeed, on Thursday his government offered new conditions and tax incentives for LNG projects in the province in a move to attract investment.
Calitz even accompanied Horgan on a recent trip to Asia to meet with the chief executives of PetroChina, Kogas and Mitsubushi, and “the meetings were really, really positive, both ways,” he said.
Andy Calitz, chief executive of LNG Canada, has been eating, sleeping, and living the project for the last four-and-a-half years pondering costs from every angle to get the green light from the four owners, Shell, Korea Gas, PetroChina and Mitsubishi. Todd Korol for National Post B.C. Green Party leader Andrew Weaver has threatened to bring down Horgan’s minority government if LNG projects move forward, arguing B.C. would fail to meet its greenhouse-gas reduction commitments.
The project would generate four megatonnes of greenhouse gases a year, but proponents said it will be the world’s greenest from a CO2 intensity perspective and reduce global carbon emissions by replacing coal in Asia.
B.C. Energy Minister Michelle Mungall did not respond to questions about LNG Canada, including whether her government is concerned about Weaver’s ultimatum.
Calitz is well aware challenges remain and need careful handling, as LNG Canada is the third project he has helped bring to fruition.
The LNG Canada project is so large it would boost global supplies by 10 per cent, or 28 million tonnes, per year at full capacity, so the addition has to be carefully introduced to avoid swamping the market. It also has to be more competitive than options from the U.S. Gulf Coast, Australia, Indonesia, Russia and Mozambique.
Compared to the U.S. Gulf, its closest rival, Canada has three competitive advantages that outweigh two competitive disadvantages, Calitz said.
B.C. Green Party leader Andrew Weaver, left, and B.C. Premier John Horgan. Horgan supports the LNG Canada project, meanwhile Weaver, who provides the balance of power for Horgan’s NDP party, warns he could withdraw from the coalition if Horgan allows the project to go ahead. Chad Hipolito/The Canadian Press On the plus side are Canada’s proximity to Asia, which shortens travel time by eight to 10 days for tankers, depending on weather along the route; the cost of producing gas in the Montney and Duvernay is lower than buying gas at Henry Hub in the U.S.; and it has an attractive 40-year export licence from the National Energy Board with no limitations on where the LNG can be exported.
On the other hand, building LNG capacity in Canada is twice as expensive than in the U.S., because of higher labour costs, lower productivity and bad weather; it’s also costly to build a pipeline through two mountain ranges.
Reducing costs is the final big-ticket item on LNG Canada’s to-do list.
To that end, LNG Canada is working with two engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contracting groups competing to build the project: TechnipFMC PLC and KBR Inc. (LNG BC Contractors), and JGC Corp. and Fluor Corp. The winner will be picked in the coming weeks.
“They are currently sharpening their pencils and taking as much risk as they can out because we have asked for an EPC lump sum: single price, single date,” Calitz said.
Originally from Cape Town, the 59-year-old joined Shell 20 years ago in business development. His first big LNG assignment involved building the Sakhalin project in Russia. His second was the Gorgon LNG project in Australia. Both were massive undertakings and helped establish LNG in their respective countries.
In Russia, Calitz was tested by having to communicate in a different language and interacting with governments unaccustomed to foreign operators.
In Australia, the startup stumbled on cost and schedule overruns. The Gorgon project cost 50 per cent more than initially planned, resulting in a final cost of US$52 billion.
The Australian experience made things tougher for B.C.’s fledgling LNG industry, Calitz said:
Indeed, after suffering from cost increases and schedule delays in Australia, LNG Canada’s joint-venture partners warned him: “Thou shall not do that. You have to have the capability and the confidence and the plans and the government support and the First Nations support and the permits, etc., to have de-risked the execution process so that you can be on the cost and on schedule as was advertised at the time of taking first FID.”
The Canadian job also came with the perk of living in Vancouver, a city Calitz said reminds him of Cape Town because of its closeness to both an ocean and mountains. He commutes between Vancouver and Calgary, where last week he clocked his 150th stay at the downtown Westin hotel.
The Vancouver team handles relations with governments, communities, regulators and First Nations. The larger Calgary team is based in Shell’s office tower and manages engineering contractors and the relationship with TransCanada Corp., which would build the pipeline.
If the project goes ahead, the Calgary team would relocate to Kitimat, where the project already owns land for the plant site.
“Canada and B.C. are better connected in a relationship sense with Asia than the other two (Russia and Australia),” he said. “It stems from the significant Asian population in B.C., the large number of people who own property, so that connectedness also makes it very natural to be talking about establishing significant trade links between Asia and B.C.”
Of course, LNG Canada had plenty of hurdles to overcome.
An important one is fitting into Canada’s reconciliation agenda with First Nations. That means value — jobs, training and benefits — has to flow back to First Nations in different ways during development, construction and then 40 years of exports.
It also means paying special attention to mitigating environmental impacts. “We have studied impact at every level … at weight level, noise level, light level, nitrogen oxide level, sulphur oxide level, CO2 level, at traffic-through-town level, at roads to be made and rivers to be crossed,” Calitz said.
So far, LNG Canada is on track. None of the 24 First Nations “touched” by the project — from Dawson Creek where the gas fields are located to Triple Island off Prince Rupert where tankers would leave the Canadian coast — are opposed. Altogether, First Nations signed 35 benefits agreements with LNG Canada, TransCanada and the B.C. government.
Ellis Ross, the former chief counsellor of the Haisla Nation near Kitimat, B.C. and now a Liberal MLA, supports the LNG Canada project because of the job opportunities it will provide to the region’s First Nations. Ben Nelms/Bloomberg The value upside, “compared to Indian Act benefits, for many of the nations, is very significant,” Calitz said, declining to put a number on the benefits package.
LNG Canada has a big champion in Ellis Ross, the former chief counsellor of the Haisla Nation near Kitimat and now a Liberal MLA. The plant is located in traditional Haisla lands. Ross embraced LNG development early on, persuaded other bands to do the same, and fended off green lobby efforts to instigate Indigenous opposition.
Benefits from the project have already paid for renovations to Haisla facilities, sports and youth groups, roof replacements for elders’ homes and funeral expenses, Ross said. Now the band is looking forward to $100,000-a-year jobs, instead of the typical $20,000 income on reserves, where 60 to 80 per cent are unemployed. He believes there will be jobs for everyone who wants to work once construction gets underway.
“Andy Calitz from day one has been honest and forthright,” Ross said. “His compassion for the region and the people is incredibly inspiring.”
The project must generate benefits for the broader community, “so that people feel this has transformed our province and our society,” Calitz said.
The enormous workforce requirement alone means LNG Canada has to build its own capacity through training and development in 19 different crafts.
Container cranes stand at the Fairview Container terminal of the Port of Prince Rupert in Prince Rupert, B.C. Ships carrying LNG from the LNG Canada project would leave the Canadian coast at Prince Rupert and head for their Asian destinations. Ben Nelms/Bloomberg Meanwhile, governments will collect billions in taxes over the life of the project, including between $126 million and $175 million a year in carbon taxes and between $57 million and $77 million in provincial sales taxes at full capacity.
Shell and its Asian partners were among the first to identify Canada’s northwest coast as an ideal LNG export point.
Two-dozen other companies have tried and mostly given up. Malaysia’s Petronas was expected to be the first to start construction, but backed out of its $36-billion project last summer amid green group opposition. Then China’s CNOOC Ltd. spiked its Aurora project and Australia’s Woodside Petroleum Ltd. dropped its Grassy Point plan.
Apache Corp., Encana Corp. and EOG Resources Inc. all pulled out long ago. Exxon Mobil Corp. has gone quiet.
In addition to LNG Canada, two other projects are making good progress: the smaller Woodfibre LNG, located north of Vancouver in Squamish, and Kitimat LNG, a joint venture between Chevron Corp. and Woodside Petroleum is working to improve its competitiveness.
Calitz calls LNG Canada’s joint-venture backers a “dream team.” Shell brought 50 years of LNG development history, Kogas is the largest national importer of LNG into Korea, PetroChina dominates the Chinese energy economy and Mitsubishi is Japan’s top trading house.
Rendering of the North East side of the LNG Canada. Handout: LNG Canada If the project goes ahead, each will bring its gas into the project, whether they produce it or buy it in Western Canada, and collect cargoes in proportion to their participation interest.
A hint of emotion breaks Calitz’s statesmanlike composure as he ponders the enormity of the work accomplished so far, the importance of the coming decision, and all those who helped make it happen.
“This undertaking is for me an undertaking almost by Canada Incorporated,” said Calitz, who, regardless of the outcome, plans to celebrate his 60th birthday this year by kayaking in Antarctica and cycling in South Africa. “If it doesn’t happen, it would be a real missed opportunity for Canada. I would be so disappointed.”
Financial Post
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